Spirits consumption trends have taken quite the rollercoaster ride over the last few years, and 2025 looks set to hold more ups and downs—potentially a lot more downs.
Among the forces shaping the near future: declining sales across core spirits categories; a smaller percentage of drinkers among Gen Z compared to other generations; potentially restrictive recommendations in new U.S. dietary guidelines, driven by misunderstanding of health and alcohol; proposed tariffs set by the incoming presidential administration; and regular cannabis user numbers exceeding their alcohol-consuming counterparts.
The upcoming year is poised to be a critical one for the industry. Spirits retailers, beverage industry professionals, and on-premise leaders confirm this as they discuss trends that will shape sales in 2025. Among them: more scrutiny of brands from consumers that are watching every dollar; an emphasis on sessionable products and experiences; and bars’ increased reliance on food sales to beef up the bottom line.
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1. Tariffs Will Disrupt Spirits Trade
Just weeks after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential elections, he was already proposing a raft of new tariffs. He announced that upon taking office that he would sign an executive order to impose a 25 percent tariff on all items coming into the U.S. from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10 percent tariff on goods from China, above any universal tariffs such as the 10 to 20 percent he previously proposed during the presidential campaign.
With Canada the second-largest export market for American spirits, and U.S. sales of tequila and mezcal totaling $6.5 billion in 2023, all of this is bad news for the spirits industry, which is still feeling the ramifications of the trade war President-elect Trump began during his first term in office. American whiskey faces the return of the retaliatory 25 percent tariff on exports, implemented by the EU in 2018 and currently on pause thanks to a suspension negotiated under President Joe Biden, which will expire in March 2025 if the U.S. and EU can’t come to an agreement.
The Distilled Spirits Council of America (DISCUS) has spoken out against the tariffs and the impact they will have on the industry in the years ahead. “At the end of the day, tariffs on spirits products from our neighbors to the north and south are going to hurt U.S. consumers and lead to job losses across the U.S. hospitality industry just as these businesses continue their long recovery from the pandemic,” DISCUS CEO Chris Swonger said in a statement. Dina Opici, the Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America (WSWA) chairwoman and president of Opici Family Distributing, also responded: “These tariffs pose a significant threat to an industry already grappling with declining volumes and rising costs,” she said. The WSWA estimated the proposal could threaten 100,000 jobs, all of which would drastically reshape the industry in the years ahead.
2. Celebrity and Luxury Spirits Are Under Scrutiny
Exploration drove much of the growth in spirits in the last decade, a trend that was amplified during the pandemic as disposable income stacked up when people were unable to travel or go out. It fueled the genesis and growth of hundreds of new brands, many in the luxury tier or boosted by a celebrity endorsement. But as restrictions eased and inflation ballooned, the trend began to ebb. In 2025, consumers will be less inclined to take a chance on an expensive product and more apt to return to everyday standbys.
“The expendable cash and the assistance that people were getting during times of COVID, being at home, has certainly leveled off the luxury purchases,” says Mark Roy, the director of marketing, merchandising, and warehousing at the New Hampshire Liquor Commission, noting that premium and super-premium spirits are seeing more demand as luxury-priced marques fall. SipSource data from the WSWA bears this out: A recent report forecast a shift down toward the $17 to $24.99 and $25 to $49.99 ranges over higher tiers.
Adding to this will be growing skepticism of celebrity spirits. Consumers will demand more than just a famous face; the product must have substance. “Consumers are becoming much more knowledgeable nowadays based on what they can look up online,” Roy says. “They’re really diving into the facts of what’s in the bottle, who’s really behind it, and if it’s worth their money. Celebrities, no matter who they are, need to realize that people are doing the research. You’ve got to be different, you’ve got to be passionate, and you’ve got to have the liquid in the bottle.”
Michael Lowry, the vice president of global spirits sourcing at Total Wine & More, has seen similar trends as more consumers turn away from celebrity spirits to trusted names. “There’s a fickleness about those celebrity brands,” he says. “There’s not as much staying power behind them.” It’s a particular trend in tequila, which is under scrutiny among consumers for its use of additives. “There’s a greater awareness now of what is quality, truth-y tequila, and what is some celebrity brand that’s filled with sugar,” Lowry adds.
3. Food Sales Are Increasingly Important to Bars’ Bottom Lines
A bowl of peanuts doesn’t cut it anymore. Food is of growing importance to bar-goers, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service. Consumers spent $8.6 billion on food purchases at bars in 2023—an increase of 14.8 percent over 2022, and more than double the amount 10 years prior.
In 2025, cocktail bars will increasingly focus on food sales as a part of the total customer experience—and a way to increase check size. “You can be the greatest bar in the world but if you don’t have something for people to snack on they’re only going to sit there for so long,” says Jessica King, the co-owner of Knoxville, Tennessee’s Brother Wolf. “We try to focus on small plates, things that can be shared and eaten while still socializing.”
Brother Wolf shares a kitchen with its sibling space, an Italian fine-dining venue called Osteria Stella, which helps the bar offer upscale dishes at a reasonable cost. Likewise, Shinji’s in New York City is sibling to the high-end sushi restaurant Noda and offers handrolls and small plates alongside its drinks menu. Shinji’s beverage director Jonathan Adler says that synergy is key to maximizing the bar’s 18 seats. “Food is the best way to keep people in the seats, spending longer,” he explains. “Without having an extensive food menu to offer, people would just come by and have one drink.”
4. Thoughtful Sessionability Becomes a Priority
Building off the interest in low-alcohol and alcohol-free drinking, consumers will embrace offerings they can enjoy over a long period of time without undesirable side effects—a trend Lowry calls “sessionability.” This could mean sticking to low- or no-alcohol options, or interspersing them with higher-ABV drinks, something that Kevin Beary, the beverage director at Three Dots and a Dash in Chicago, sees happening. “People are combining those experiences,” he says.
Lowry emphasizes that an establishment’s alcohol-free drinks must match the standards of those with alcohol. “You need to have something that’s a little more thoughtful than soda water or Coca-Cola—that’s speaking to that customer who would still like to enjoy some type of cocktail or something fun and exotic,” he says.
On-premise, bartenders will increasingly highlight such options and train their staff to discuss them with interested patrons—a growing group. Nielsen reports that a quarter of on-premise consumers have tried non-alcoholic drinks, and the segment overall is expanding tremendously, up nearly 31 percent in the 52 weeks ending October 1, 2024. King explicitly links the trend to self-care. “The customer has gotten smarter about taking care of themselves more and non-alcoholic cocktails fit right into that,” she says. Brother Wolf plans to add more alcohol-free options to its menu, to ensure “that people know we’re always going to have something for them.”
Another aspect to this trend, King adds, is that people are educating themselves on what goes into spirits and cocktails, which connects with the demand for transparency discussed above. “They’re not coming in and asking for whiskey-Coke; they’re saying, ‘I want a Japanese whisky.’ They want to know the mashbill in the bourbon selections.” She also points to the additive-free tequila movement as a prime example. “It goes hand-in-hand with drinking less and drinking better-quality stuff,” she says.
5. Home Cocktailing Offers Continued Growth Potential
At-home cocktails will continue to be a major driver for off-premise sales, especially in the form of ready-to-drink (RTD) options. RTDs have been one of the few growth areas in beverage alcohol in the past two years, up nearly 27 percent to $2.8 billion in 2023, according to DISCUS. That bright spot is set to continue shining in 2025—according to IWSR’s “RTDs Strategic Study 2024” report, RTDs are forecast to register CAGR volume gains of three percent between 2023 and 2028, though it notes that fragmentation in the sector will make it difficult for brands and even specific flavors to dominate.
In addition, hands-on home cocktailing is still popular, proving important especially in capturing the experimental purchase. “It’s a primary vehicle for exploration,” Lowry says, pointing to a boom in sales across Total Wine’s stores of sweet liqueurs and modifiers.
Specific cocktails will act as catalysts for this trend. Lowry points to how the spritz is having a huge moment, with consumers encountering it on-premise and then trying to make it at home. The retailer’s response is to merchandise all the necessary ingredients in a way that facilitates purchase. “We’re trying to create a scenario at the store where you can add three things into a basket and build your cocktail,” Lowry explains. “Having that sort of easy entry point to cocktails is probably one of the most important things that we’re doing right now.”
Roy notes the same trend and says that it’s feeding back into the on-premise. “People realized that it’s not that difficult to make really good cocktails at home,” he says. “They’ve learned, and that’s bled over to the on-premise. Restaurants have had to step their level up to make high-quality consistent cocktails because now people expect it when they go out.”
Dispatch
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An award-winning journalist and seasoned critic, Susannah Skiver Barton writes about whiskey and spirits from around the world. Bylines include Bon Appétit, The Daily Beast, Whisky Advocate, Whisky Magazine, VinePair, PUNCH, Men’s Health, InsideHook, Men’s Journal, and Liquor.com, among others. She is a Certified Spirits Specialist and the Whiskey Editor for The New Wine Review. More at susannahskiverbarton.com.
