The intense holiday sales season known as OND hits retailers every year, but each holiday period is uniquely impacted by the events of the year to that point. So what can beverage professionals expect from consumers as we enter the busiest—and most crucial—sales season of 2024?
Though inflation is cooling, consumers are still feeling the economic strain of recent years, and prices remain higher than they once were. At the same time, purchasers have shifting priorities, drinking less—and less often—and considering the sustainability of the beverages they purchase. Still, this holiday season holds opportunities for the off-premise sector.
Beverage professionals from retail shops, distributors, restaurants, and more discuss five overarching trends that will impact holiday sales in 2024.
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No- and Low-ABV Beverages Will Have Broader Reach
With a wider availability of zero-proof and low-ABV wines, spirits, and beer, the practice of abstaining from or limiting alcohol now transcends Dry January—and that includes during the holiday season.
As Alexandra Morey, the director of operations for MHW Ltd., a service importer, distributor, and back-office provider in Manhasset, New York, points out, millennials decreased their alcohol intake 40 percent from 2023 to 2024, downsizing from an average of five drinks per week to three drinks. A similar percentage of overall Americans planned to drink less in 2024. “Younger drinkers engage in more ‘tempo drinking’ [avoiding alcohol most days of the week], or abstaining altogether,” she says. “Low-alcohol beverages … have done an incredible job building their brands in a short period of time.”
“This time of year, it’s essential to provide non-alcoholic beverages and moderating options to promote inclusivity,” says Andrea Starr, the senior director for merchandising at Total Wine & More. “The quality and variety of these beverages are at an all-time high.” Products like spritzes from Ghia, complex spirits from Curious Elixirs and Everleaf Botanical Spirits, dealcoholized wines like sparkling French Bloom and Leitz’s non-alcoholic options, and Guinness Draught 0.0% are proving to be popular during a season when drinking occasions become far more frequent.
Starr also expects imported lagers—a low-ABV option—to retain strong interest. “Consumers increasingly view these beers as a way to explore unique flavors and global traditions during the holiday season, adding a touch of sophistication during their gatherings,” she says.
Last year Kraig Rovensky, the global brand ambassador for The Pathfinder, a fermented and distilled hemp-based, zero-proof spirit, saw sales double going into Thanksgiving and then spike again before Christmas. He expects the same this year—and predicts an unintended consequence. “Now that [the non-alcoholic segment] has seen the rise it has, people are actually paying attention to ABV in a new way,” he says. “They might actually gravitate towards buying the lower-ABV sherry, vermouth, or amaro, for example, over the whiskey.”
Consumers Will Seek Out Sustainable, Intentional Value-Added Packaging
As trade members and consumers alike seek out ways to be more sustainable, generic holiday packs with mass-produced glassware or shakers have become less of a draw. “VAPs [value-added packaging] have also become more costly to the suppliers,” says Morey. “Though we are seeing variety packs rise to the occasion.” She cites examples like a recent collaboration between Flaviar and the San Francisco World Spirits Competition for a whiskey advent calendar and a Double Gold Bourbons Legends Pack with winners from the annual competition.
“With a shift towards more mindful spending and a focus on the environmental impacts of waste, purchases will lean into high quality versus a lesser, expensive package with added glassware,” says Nadia Bickelhaupt, the sommelier and owner of Konro Restaurant in West Palm Beach, Florida. One exception, she says, is bottles packaged in wooden crates, which can become showpieces in collections.
Rovensky believes the Marie Kondo effect may be at play here, with consumers eschewing the added clutter that may be part of VAPs. “If brands got smarter and more creative, VAP would be quick to catch back on,” he says. “Who needs another two branded rocks glasses? A cool catch tray or limited-edition art would be far more attention-grabbing these days.”
Consumers Are Trading Up to Fewer, But Higher-Quality, Offerings
During the pandemic, Dave Parker, the founder and CEO of top back-vintage retailer Benchmark Wine Group, witnessed a philosophical shift from quantity to quality, with consumers investing in expensive bottles and rare vintages with long-term value. “These were the small luxuries they could afford when restaurants and large gatherings were not part of the equation,” he says.
Though these buyers switched to (relatively) more modest options like second-growth Bordeaux during the subsequent period of high inflation, this trend will continue to reverse this holiday season now that inflation is declining. “For decades, the average dollars spent on wine has outpaced the average number of bottles sold, indicating people tend to drink ever better.” Last year, Benchmark saw an average increase of six percent in sales during the fourth quarter, and Parker predicts the same this year, with higher-end Champagnes and heavier reds playing a part in even modest celebrations.
While Morey anticipates the typical annual spike in the sparkling wine category from November to January, she believes it’ll be a more conservative uptick this year, based on data from the past 24 months. For the wine category as a whole, consumers are increasingly focused on what’s in the bottle, often turning to organic and biodynamic options. “We’ve also seen consumers looking into the wine fermentation, sulfites, and filtering processes,” she says. “They generally want less additives and are willing to pay more for it.”
Those engaging in the aforementioned “tempo drinking” practice, skipping the booze for five or six days a week, are often then more willing to splurge on the other days, Bickelhaupt says. This is especially true during the holidays, with an increase in the number of parties, gatherings, and special dinners. “High-end spirits will continue to dominate the holiday market, specifically allocated bourbons and tequilas, particularly for gifting as their cachet continues to increase,” she says.
An Ethos of Experiential Drinking Is Gaining Traction
Opportunities during the holidays to include wine as part of an activity or event are becoming more appealing. “We are seeing that consumers are choosing to spend their money on experiences rather than goods, and putting more thought and effort into these experiences,” says Erin Dudley, the wine director for Neighborhood Restaurant Group, a hospitality company based in Alexandria, Virginia. She says she’s seen an uptick in event and wine tasting sales, but a drop in sales of bottles.
Bickelhaupt agrees. “COVID-19 reframed the consumer mindset around enjoyment, with more people dedicating themselves to learning about wine and leaning into their food and beverage experiences,” she says. During the holidays, this could take the form of a tasting of wines for Thanksgiving or Hanukkah at a retail shop, pairing dinner at home, a wine-gifting exchange, or tree-trimming cocktail party. “I believe consumers … value money and time spent on making memories,” Bickelhaupt adds.
For their part, younger wine consumers bring with them the core values of sustainability and experimentation, Parker says, being more open-minded to biodynamic production methods and less-expected regions like Sicily and Eastern Europe. “As younger wine drinkers begin entertaining more, they are likely to follow their older [cohorts] in their desire to understand wine and its social role,” he says.
Higher Prices Still Pose Challenges
In September 2024, the Federal Reserve announced that the price of goods is 21 percent higher than in February 2020. If the previous years are any indication, prices will go up five to 10 percent across the board this holiday season compared to last, believes Matthew Fisk, the sommelier for WineLair, the Washington, D.C.-based offshoot of European private wine club WineBank.
“Alcohol sales will get a significant boost due to American holiday habits, but the bubble will burst pretty quickly once the holiday season ebbs,” he predicts. Larger, corporate wineries, distilleries, and breweries are able to capitalize on their advantage of economies of scale, raising prices less and therefore taking a bigger cut of off-premise sales than their smaller counterparts.
Inflation and the general increase of cost of goods makes winemaking more expensive, Dudley says, and imported wines have the added cost of transportation and tariffs. Still, Bickelhaupt sees some positive signs, like the last several strong, high-quality vintages in California and the slight pricing decrease in French wines. “Spirits, however, seem impervious to price fluctuation,” she notes. “Economically conscious consumers are finding them a better investment as there’s no need to be concerned about oxidation and longevity of product.”
Dispatch
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Kelly Magyarics is a wine, spirits, travel, and lifestyle writer in the Washington, D.C. area who holds the WSET Diploma. You can reach her on her website, kellymagyarics.com and on Twitter and Instagram @kmagyarics.
