Decreased consumption, proliferating climate disasters, and a change in U.S. leadership that promises to upend business as usual are making for tough times in wine. But, as Adam Casto, the winemaker at Napa’s Ehlers Estate, observes, “A sense of destabilization in virtually all categories of a largely staid industry has, as it should, sent us scrambling for solutions and provided need-based opportunities for innovation. While there is not yet a clear consensus on what exactly it is we are running from or to, what is clear is that we need to run.” As 2025 unfolds, here’s what wine pros forecast for the industry, and ways they plan to respond.
1. The Effects of the Second Trump Term Will Be Profound
With Donald Trump’s reelection, tariffs loom. First will come a rush on imports. “There should be containers coming now from Europe to hit landfall before Inauguration Day and get wines in at a lower price,” says Brian Rosen, the founder and managing partner of the private equity firm InvestBev. If tariffs are enacted, the EU will likely retaliate with its own levies, causing an export slump for American wines. Rosen projects a 13 to 16 percent dip in imports and a larger decrease of 18 to 22 percent in exports.
Though tariffs are designed to boost American-made products at home, “It’s likely sales will fall as capital costs increase for U.S. producers,” says Caroline Clark, the director of beverage and hospitality at Colorado’s Id Est. “Plus, evidence shows that consumers won’t switch to domestic wines, but instead cheaper options like beer.”
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Given inflation, “People have been less inclined to drink things over $100 already,” says Adrienne Vanni, the beverage director of New York City’s Lola’s. “With tariffs, that will really be the case. Lots of wines will be priced out.”
In response, sommeliers worry about additional work and stress. “Decreased inventories, late shipments, and price increases require huge flexibility on my end and communication on distributors’ and importers’ end,” says Lindsay Ogden, the beverage manager for Ajja in Raleigh, North Carolina. “I anticipate having to update menus with greater frequency, keep staff apprised of daily fluctuations, and constantly retrain.”
Artisanal producers will suffer the most, say Gentleman Farmer Wines’ Jeff Durham and Joey Wołosz. “Large companies can stock up on inventory now. Family-owned wineries will have to buy barrels, bottles, and corks next year after possible tariffs go into effect,” they say. Yet, tariffs aren’t this couple’s only concern around Trump. “The Supreme Court, the Department of Health and Human Services—these things will impact us on a daily basis,” say the two men. “What we do is having no negative affect on anyone, so why now is there this attention on a part of who we are, and an attempt to take down LGBTQ+ people, or make them second- or third-class citizens?”
The administration’s social policies threaten consequences for many in wine, including trans and queer folks, BIPOC professionals, anyone who can get pregnant, and first and foremost, immigrants. With Trump promising mass deportations, says Remy Drabkin, “that the lead conversation is even about tariffs instead of about the families that are going to be affected is so reflective of why we’re right here,” in a crisis as an industry and a nation. The founder of Remy Wines and Queer Wine Fest lives in Oregon’s Willamette Valley, where organizations like Unidos Bridging Community are already mobilizing to fight detentions and family separation
Cramoisi Vineyards’ Sofia Torres-McKay, the cofounder of AHIVOY, says “Mass deportation will be brutal, dark, and stressful. Winegrowers need to find ways to protect vineyard stewards. They are the foundation of the wine industry. Labor will be more expensive, and it will be hard to find the right people to do the work.”
The resulting labor shortages and supply chain disruptions will have a ripple effect, “forcing wineries to make tough operational decisions,” warns Chris Schmid, the senior vice president of strategic partnerships at distributor Prestige-Ledroit. “For queer, trans, and BIPOC professionals, the recent strides we’ve made in visibility and inclusivity could be at risk in a political climate that leans toward regressive policies. If these groups feel marginalized or unsafe, we could lose valuable momentum in building a more representative and diverse wine community.”
2. Climate Change Will Accelerate Its Impact, and Producers Will Accelerate Their Response
Wineries and buyers are going into 2025 on the heels of a year that saw catastrophic flooding in Spanish wine regions and an unprecedented hurricane in Asheville, North Carolina, where Plēb Urban Winery was devastated. “Rising temperatures and unpredictable weather patterns are already impacting the 2025 vintage,” says Schmid. “Smaller producers, especially, face increasing challenges in adapting. Collaborative sustainability efforts and consumer education will be key to navigating these issues effectively.”
At Santa Barbara’s family-owned Pali Wine Co., “That means sharing our organic and regenerative farming techniques, sourcing like-minded partners across the Central Coast, and expanding our green thumb across our operation,” says marketing and ecommerce manager Madison Steinberg.
But everywhere in the wine world, green initiatives are proliferating in response to climate change. Global organic wine sales, now $12.4 billion, are expected to grow over 10 percent in the next five years. Despite the political backlash in the U.S. against ESG—the environmental, social, and governance responsibility that has become a standard for regulators—California, several nations, and in 2025, the EU, are requiring disclosure of climate risks as part of corporate sustainability reports.
As a result, Angelina Mondavi, the consulting winemaker at Charles Krug, where solar powers 80 percent of production, says “a trend is minimizing our carbon footprint throughout the vineyards, winery, and packaging.” Andrés Valero, the leader of sustainability and corporate social responsibility at Argentina’s Grupo Avinea, predicts increased awareness of biodiversity’s role in winegrowing; increased reuse, recycling, and revaluing waste; and, with pressure from supermarket chains, expansion of Fairtrade.
With many wineries “having frank conversations with consumers about the effects of climate change within their vineyards,” says Rob Giles, the director of beverage at New York City’s Beefbar, “in 2025 we will see consumers demand more transparency with regards to wine.”
That goes hand in hand with a changing consumer palate. As traditional regions get too hot for typicity, notes Kara Daving, a sommelier at The Bazaar by José Andrés in New York City, “winemakers and wine lovers will look to cooler and more elevated terroirs that remain relatively insulated from climatic shifts.” Spain’s Sierra de Gredos, Italy’s Mount Etna—these are increasingly popular areas “for their fresh, vibrant, balanced wines,” adds Daving. In the New World, Valero notes the expansion of winemaking into cold-climate Patagonia and New Zealand’s Otago.
3. Alternative Varieties from Established Regions, and Established Varieties from Alternative Regions, Will Emerge
Amid climate change’s overripening and inflation’s overpricing, pros predict an uptick in established varieties from alternative regions. Such wines offer freshness and affordability, but with the cache of familiar grapes.
“If you like Nebbiolo, for example, Alto Piemonte is a sweetheart area,” says Colin Tuska, the wine director and beverage manager at Chicago’s Monteverde. “We are having great success with La Torretta from the subregion of Ghemme, offering a 12-year-old vintage that’s less than $200.”
“Alternative Nebbiolo” is what Erin Lindstone, a sommelier at Denver’s Barolo Grill, calls such wines. “The leaner texture, vibrant acidity, and unique minerality fit what people are craving these days,” she says. “I’m getting guests who’ve already fallen in love with Nebbiolo and are in search of expressions from lesser-known areas.” Lindstone lauds Roero Nebbiolos for their “lifted aromatics and finely tuned tannins,” while Liz Martinez, the general manager of Alexandria, Virginia’s Kiln calls out the “evolved yet delicate” Nebbiolos of Valtellina in the Rhaetian Alps.
Such alternatives will become more important on-premise when tariffs hit, says Jeff Cleveland, the general manager and sommelier at Birch in Milwaukee. “Those buyers willing to invest time and effort will explore lesser-known areas to discover exceptional wines that are priced more competitively. While some may resort to buying freezes or relying on existing stock, it will be crucial to maintain flexibility in adapting to the evolving circumstances in order to remain competitive in the wine space.”
In a companion trend, “we will soon start to see regions once known for a specific variety being replanted with varieties more conducive to the new environment,” says April Busch, the wine director of Manhattan’s Passerine. Owen Huzar, the wine director at John’s Food and Wine in Chicago, for example, thinks 2025 will start with “the winter of Cabernet Franc,” his top-selling red wine. Casto calls the variety’s increasing popularity in Napa “an inflection point for consumers’ developing desire for and sophistication with more diverse wine styles.”
Across California’s established regions, a shake-up is happening, says Daniel Fitzgerlad, the winemaker at Avivo Wines, around the traditional big five: Pinot Noir, Chardonnay, Cabernet Sauvignon, Sauvignon Blanc, and Zinfandel. “The younger generations are more curious,” he says. “They have more information at their fingertips. They’re more diverse. They have varied preferences.” That will shape what’s planted in the near future. “I’m already seeing a lot more interesting varieties come through the winery, from Pinot Grigio, Vermentino, and Sangiovese to unheard of varieties like Abouriou.”
4. The Non-Alcoholic Category Will Mature
“The non-alcoholic category is poised for significant growth,” observes Eugenio Egorov, the head sommelier and wine buyer at The Stafford London. Estimated at nearly $2.3 billion in 2023, non-alcoholic wine sales should rise by almost eight percent by 2030. Along with greater quantities will come increased excellence. Dealcoholized wines, sparkling whites based on grape juice, sparkling teas, alternative ferments—”As production techniques improve, we can expect to see a wider range of styles and higher-quality options, offering sophisticated alternatives for those seeking the flavor and ritual of wine without alcohol,” Egorov says.
“Brands like Non, Muri, and Three Spirit are making analogs that are hitting more of those ‘wine’ notes, using high-quality, integrity-driven ingredients. Winegrowers, like the family behind Zeronimo in Austria, are going the extra mile to make great wines in the vineyard and also create more no- and low-ABV options at the cellar door,” says Caleb Ganzer, the managing director of La Compagnie Wine Bar in New York City.
As a result, non-alcoholic wines will “reflect varietal typicity and deliver a genuine expression of terroir,” says Tyler Gomez, the beverage director at Glorietta in Jackson, Wyoming.
The maturation of the category is fueled by consumers, says Andy Chabot, the senior vice president of food and beverage at Tennessee’s Blackberry Farm and Blackberry Mountain. “We’re seeing demand from guests who want to not consume alcohol, but also have an immersive dining experience,” he says. “That coupled with not enough supply makes me think we’ll see more emerging brands or even a shift for current producers to produce non-alcoholic wines as one of their offerings.”
As quality improves, non-alcoholic wine will be held to similar standards and enjoyed alongside traditional wine, suggests Moderato cofounder Sébastien Thomas, “which means authenticity and the possibility to clearly connect with how the wine is produced and where it comes from. Non-alcoholic wine drinkers are also regular wine drinkers who decide to better balance their alcohol intake while still enjoying a product that belongs to the wine family. Those flexi drinkers expect qualitative non-alcoholic options.”
On-premise pros are poised to serve them. “Many tasting-menu restaurants have begun to include, in prominence, spirit-free pairings,” says Tia Polite, the head sommelier at Chicago’s Indienne. “Ours is popular not just among guests who enjoy a spirit-free lifestyle, but also those who consume alcohol. It is common to see guests share both a wine and spirit-free pairing with their meals.”
5. Sales Will Become More Innovative, Personalized, and Experiential to Cater to a New Generation
“My Gen Z peers are open and eager to try new flavors or half-glasses of wines they haven’t encountered before, as a way to explore their own preferences,” says Polite. “They’re unafraid to say, ‘I’m not familiar with that, but tell me more.’” In response, “the newest generation of sommeliers is redefining the field with an emphasis on approachability, warmth, and openness.”
The rest of the wine world will follow younger professionals’ lead. Producers, retailers, and on-premise professionals will cater sales toward more innovative, experiential, and personalized strategies. Much of the approach centers around storytelling. “People want to know the wine story,” says Huzar. “They want to know what they’re drinking is special. Tell the story, make it interesting. If you’re not invested, people are not going to buy it because it’s boring.”
“Story is very important,” agrees Vanni. “That’s how people remember wines. If you tell them the story of a family or area, it’s way more likely to stick.” Even glass pours need that hand-sell. “People are looking to spend less money and drink less, so they are looking for more dynamic by-the-glass programs.”
Sommeliers will leverage technology to help cater to individual customers’ tastes. “Wine lovers will increasingly seek personalized wine pairing experiences,” predicts Matthew Jacobson, the head sommelier at Botanist in Vancouver, Canada. “Virtual wine pairing events, subscription services that offer curated food and wine pairings, and even AI-powered suggestions are on the rise.”
Personalization and storytelling will extend to retail sales, as boutique shops become the “go-to spots for discovering something exciting and new,” says Anthony Lygizos, the owner of the Denver bakery, deli, and wine bar Leven, “It’s all about storytelling and providing value with lesser-known offerings that someone might not find even at restaurants.”
Gomez foresees a more interactive wine landscape, where “retailers will curate enhanced experiences to better connect with their consumers, offering creative pairings and personalized microevents to maintain engagement and stay relevant,” while “neighborhood wine clubs will serve as opportunities to build community, grow education, and develop brand loyalties.”
Wineries will increasingly offer interactive and cross-disciplinary experiences, as well. In just one example, Pali Wine Co. has begun offering “blend your own” experiences. “Consumers want to have their hand in the crafting process,” says Steinberg. “There’s a growing desire for tailored experiences and products.”
“I think 2025 is going to be the year of newness,” says Zwann Grays, the wine director at Brooklyn’s Nin Hao. Despite the challenges facing the industry, she sees a bright near future for wine with the creativeness of new generations of drinkers. “People want to be at new spaces in which to drink wine. We are going to see more culturally driven and artistic approaches to getting wine into glasses. Wine parties and social events are going to take us there. It won’t be this novelty anymore. People want to have community. It’s going to be in the streets and full blown.”
Dispatch
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Betsy Andrews is an award-winning journalist and poet. Her latest book is Crowded. Her writing can be found at betsyandrews.contently.com.
